Aaron Nesmith

ind F NBA

Aaron Nesmith is projected for 13.3 points. The best price on Over 12.5 is -106 at Novig, against OPTIMAL's fair price of -108. Aaron Nesmith has gone over 12.5 points in 6 of the last 10 games (60%), versus the 51% the market implies.Odds updated Nov 7, 4:56 PM ET

Aaron Nesmith projections and betting odds for Points, Assists, Rebounds, and more. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Nov 7

Props & Odds

Points O/U 12.5

13.3proj

Hit rate vs Over 12.5

market implies 51%

Last 5: 40%
Last 10: 60%
Last 20: 55%
Last 127: 45%

line 12.5

5 @SA

19 @ORL

14 vs LAL

26 vs LAC

9 vs DAL

13 @BKN

13 @MIL

18 vs PHI

9 @MIA

11 vs BKN

16 @MEM

8 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 13.3

0.0 30.7

Most likely 8.3–18.4 Typical 3.8–22.9

Odds analysis

Over 12.5 · fair -108

Novig -106 +0.5%
Optimal -108
ProphetX -114
Fanduel -118
Sportsbook Rhode Island -118
theScore -120
betr -120
DraftKings Pick6 -122
Dabble -122
DraftKings -124
Onyx Odds -124
Courtside -124
Hard Rock Bet (FL) -125
Hard Rock Bet (IL,OH) -125
Fliff -125
Hard Rock Bet (IN,CO,NJ,TN,VA,AZ,MI) -125
Underdog -127
Fanatics -130
ParlayPlay -132
Pinnacle -133
Sleeper -135
Caesars -137

Assists O/U 1.5

1.3proj

Hit rate vs Over 1.5

market implies 45%

Last 5: 60%
Last 10: 50%
Last 20: 50%
Last 127: 41%

line 1.5

0 @SA

2 @ORL

1 vs LAL

2 vs LAC

1 vs DAL

2 @BKN

1 @MIL

1 vs PHI

2 @MIA

4 vs BKN

2 @MEM

1 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 1.3

0.0 5.9

Most likely 0.0–2.6 Typical 0.0–3.8

Odds analysis

Over 1.5 · fair +112

Sportsbook Rhode Island +124 +2.5%
Optimal +112
Bally Bet -104
BetRivers -104
SugarHouse -104
betPARX -104
ParlayPlay -128

Rebounds O/U 3.5

3.4proj

Hit rate vs Over 3.5

market implies 45%

Last 5: 20%
Last 10: 30%
Last 20: 20%
Last 127: 52%

line 3.5

2 @SA

2 @ORL

3 vs LAL

7 vs LAC

4 vs DAL

1 @BKN

0 @MIL

2 vs PHI

3 @MIA

3 vs BKN

2 @MEM

5 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 3.4

0.0 9.8

Most likely 1.5–5.2 Typical 0.0–6.9

Odds analysis

Over 3.5 · fair +122

Optimal +122
BookMaker +120
Novig +117
theScore +115
Kalshi +114
Coinbase +114
DraftKings +112
Courtside +112
Onyx Odds +112
Polymarket +112
Polymarket US +111
Fanatics +110
Sportsbook Rhode Island +110
Underdog +109
BetOnline +109
ProphetX +109
Hard Rock Bet (FL) +105
Hard Rock Bet (IL,OH) +105
Hard Rock Bet (IN,CO,NJ,TN,VA,AZ,MI) +105
Fanduel +104
Caesars +104
Bally Bet +102
BetRivers +102
SugarHouse +102
betPARX +102
Dabble +100
Rebet +100
BetMGM +100
Fliff +100
ParlayPlay -102
Sleeper -104
betr -120

Points + Assists O/U 19.5

14.4proj

Hit rate vs Over 19.5

market implies 24%

Last 5: 0%
Last 10: 10%
Last 20: 20%
Last 127: 18%

line 19.5

5 @SA

21 @ORL

15 vs LAL

28 vs LAC

10 vs DAL

15 @BKN

14 @MIL

19 vs PHI

11 @MIA

15 vs BKN

18 @MEM

9 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 14.4

0.0 32.8

Most likely 9.0–19.7 Typical 4.2–24.5

Odds analysis

Sportsbook Rhode Island +310
Bally Bet +245
BetRivers +245
SugarHouse +245
betPARX +245

Points + Rebounds O/U 16.5

16.7proj

Hit rate vs Over 16.5

market implies 50%

Last 5: 40%
Last 10: 40%
Last 20: 40%
Last 127: 47%

line 16.5

7 @SA

21 @ORL

17 vs LAL

33 vs LAC

13 vs DAL

14 @BKN

13 @MIL

20 vs PHI

12 @MIA

14 vs BKN

18 @MEM

13 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 16.7

0.0 35.9

Most likely 11.1–22.3 Typical 6.1–27.2

Odds analysis

Over 16.5 · fair +104

Optimal +104
Novig +102
Fanduel -104
Sportsbook Rhode Island -104
ProphetX -104
DraftKings -110
Onyx Odds -110
Hard Rock Bet (FL) -110
Hard Rock Bet (IL,OH) -110
Courtside -110
theScore -110
Hard Rock Bet (IN,CO,NJ,TN,VA,AZ,MI) -110
Fliff -115
ParlayPlay -116
BetMGM -120
betr -120
Bally Bet -121
BetRivers -121
SugarHouse -121
betPARX -121
Dabble -122
Sleeper -125
Caesars -125

Assists + Rebounds O/U 4.5

4.6proj

Hit rate vs Over 4.5

market implies 55%

Last 5: 60%
Last 10: 50%
Last 20: 35%
Last 127: 59%

line 4.5

2 @SA

4 @ORL

4 vs LAL

9 vs LAC

5 vs DAL

3 @BKN

1 @MIL

3 vs PHI

5 @MIA

7 vs BKN

4 @MEM

6 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 4.6

0.0 12.9

Most likely 2.2–7.0 Typical 0.1–9.2

Odds analysis

Dabble -122
Sportsbook Rhode Island -126
Bally Bet -148
BetRivers -148
SugarHouse -148
betPARX -148

Points + Assists + Rebounds O/U 14.5

17.9proj

Hit rate vs Over 14.5

market implies 70%

Last 5: 60%
Last 10: 60%
Last 20: 60%
Last 127: 66%

line 14.5

7 @SA

23 @ORL

18 vs LAL

35 vs LAC

14 vs DAL

16 @BKN

14 @MIL

21 vs PHI

14 @MIA

18 vs BKN

20 @MEM

14 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 17.9

0.0 36.8

Most likely 12.4–23.4 Typical 7.5–28.3

Odds analysis

Sportsbook Rhode Island -232
Underdog Fantasy -244
Bally Bet -286
BetRivers -286
SugarHouse -286
betPARX -286

Blocks O/U 0.5

0.4proj

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

market implies 35%

Last 5: 20%
Last 10: 20%
Last 20: 30%
Last 127: 39%

line 0.5

0 @SA

1 @ORL

0 vs LAL

0 vs LAC

0 vs DAL

0 @BKN

1 @MIL

0 vs PHI

0 @MIA

0 vs BKN

1 @MEM

0 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 0.4

0.0 2.0

Most likely 0.0–1.0 Typical 0.0–1.0

Odds analysis

Bally Bet +185
BetRivers +185
SugarHouse +185
betPARX +185
bet365 +182

Steals O/U 0.5

0.7proj

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

market implies 53%

Last 5: 60%
Last 10: 60%
Last 20: 45%
Last 127: 53%

line 0.5

0 @SA

0 @ORL

1 vs LAL

1 vs LAC

0 vs DAL

0 @BKN

1 @MIL

2 vs PHI

0 @MIA

1 vs BKN

3 @MEM

0 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 0.7

0.0 3.0

Most likely 0.0–1.0 Typical 0.0–2.0

Odds analysis

Over 0.5 · fair +100

Optimal +100
bet365 -111
Bally Bet -113
BetRivers -113
SugarHouse -113
betPARX -113
Underdog Fantasy -115
Dabble -122

Steals + Blocks O/U 1.5

1.0proj

Hit rate vs Over 1.5

market implies 33%

Last 5: 40%
Last 10: 30%
Last 20: 20%
Last 127: 32%

line 1.5

0 @SA

1 @ORL

1 vs LAL

1 vs LAC

0 vs DAL

0 @BKN

2 @MIL

2 vs PHI

0 @MIA

1 vs BKN

4 @MEM

0 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 1.0

0.0 4.0

Most likely 0.0–2.0 Typical 0.0–2.0

Odds analysis

Bally Bet +200
BetRivers +200
SugarHouse +200
bet365 +200
Underdog Fantasy +168

3PT Made O/U 2.5

2.2proj

Hit rate vs Over 2.5

market implies 37%

Last 5: 20%
Last 10: 30%
Last 20: 30%
Last 127: 35%

line 2.5

1 @SA

5 @ORL

2 vs LAL

4 vs LAC

1 vs DAL

2 @BKN

3 @MIL

3 vs PHI

1 @MIA

0 vs BKN

2 @MEM

2 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 2.2

0.0 6.0

Most likely 1.0–3.0 Typical 0.0–4.0

Odds analysis

Over 2.5 · fair +168

Optimal +168
Novig +167
Kalshi +166
Coinbase +166
ProphetX +153
Circa +150
Underdog +148
Sportsbook Rhode Island +148
bet365 +145
Fanduel +144
Polymarket US +142
Pinnacle +142
Hard Rock Bet (FL) +140
Hard Rock Bet (IL,OH) +140
Fliff +140
Hard Rock Bet (IN,CO,NJ,TN,VA,AZ,MI) +140
BetOnline +139
Bally Bet +138
BetRivers +138
SugarHouse +138
betPARX +138
Courtside +136
DraftKings +136
Onyx Odds +136
theScore +135
Fanatics +130
Sleeper +130
BetMGM +130
Caesars +128
ParlayPlay +127
Rebet +125
DraftKings Pick6 +118
Dabble +118

Double Double O/U 0.5

0.1proj

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

market implies 5%

Last 5: 0%
Last 10: 0%
Last 20: 0%
Last 127: 2%

line 0.5

0 @SA

0 @ORL

0 vs LAL

0 vs LAC

0 vs DAL

0 @BKN

0 @MIL

0 vs PHI

0 @MIA

0 vs BKN

0 @MEM

0 vs DEN

Projected range

projection 0.1

0.0 1.0

Most likely 0.0–0.0 Typical 0.0–0.0

Odds analysis

BetMGM +1750
ProphetX +1484

Recent games

Opp	Date	W/L	MIN	PTS	AST	REB	P+A	P+R	A+R	P+A+R	STL	BLK	S+B	3PM	TO
vs DEN	11-07	L	27	8	1	5	9	13	6	14	0	0	0	2	2
@ MEM	11-05	W	30	16	2	2	18	18	4	20	3	1	4	2	1
vs BKN	11-01	L	30	11	4	3	15	14	7	18	1	0	1	0	3
@ MIA	10-31	L	21	9	2	3	11	12	5	14	0	0	0	1	1
vs PHI	10-28	L	27	18	1	2	19	20	3	21	2	0	2	3	2
@ MIL	10-27	L	21	13	1	0	14	13	1	14	1	1	2	3	1
@ BKN	10-25	W	19	13	2	1	15	14	3	16	0	0	0	2	2
vs DAL	10-23	L	20	9	1	4	10	13	5	14	0	0	0	1	1
vs LAC	03-27	L	35	26	2	7	28	33	9	35	1	0	1	4	5
vs LAL	03-25	L	32	14	1	3	15	17	4	18	1	0	1	2	3
@ ORL	03-23	W	35	19	2	2	21	21	4	23	0	1	1	5	1
@ SA	03-22	L	25	5	0	2	5	7	2	7	0	0	0	1	0
vs POR	03-18	L	26	15	1	3	16	18	4	19	1	0	1	1	1
@ NY	03-17	L	24	14	0	1	14	15	1	15	0	0	0	4	0
@ MIL	03-15	L	29	32	1	2	33	34	3	35	0	1	1	7	3
vs NY	03-13	L	34	12	2	2	14	14	4	16	1	0	1	1	1
@ SAC	03-11	L	35	29	3	4	32	33	7	36	0	1	1	2	0
@ POR	03-09	L	25	9	2	1	11	10	3	12	1	0	1	1	1
@ LAL	03-07	L	23	7	1	3	8	10	4	11	0	2	2	1	1
@ LAC	03-05	L	20	2	2	3	4	5	5	7	0	0	0	0	1
@ WAS	02-20	L	15	3	1	2	4	5	3	6	0	0	0	0	0
@ NY	02-11	W	37	11	0	8	11	19	8	19	0	2	2	1	2
@ TOR	02-08	L	23	7	1	1	8	8	2	9	1	0	1	1	0
@ MIL	02-07	L	27	12	1	1	13	13	2	14	2	0	2	2	2
vs HOU	02-03	L	33	17	2	6	19	23	8	25	0	1	1	3	1

FAQ

What are Aaron Nesmith's projections?

OPTIMAL projects Aaron Nesmith for 13.3 points, 1.3 assists and 3.4 rebounds. Half of the projected outcomes for points fall between 8.3 and 18.4, and four in five between 3.8 and 22.9.

What are the best odds on Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 points?

The best price on Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 points is -106 at Novig, among 21 sportsbooks pricing the line. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is -108.

How often has Aaron Nesmith gone over 12.5 points?

Aaron Nesmith has gone over 12.5 points in 2 of the last 5, 6 of the last 10, 11 of the last 20 and 57 of the last 127 games. The best price implies 51%.

What props does Aaron Nesmith have?

Sportsbooks have posted 12 props for Aaron Nesmith: points, assists, rebounds, points + assists, points + rebounds, assists + rebounds, points + assists + rebounds, blocks and more. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.

How does OPTIMAL project Aaron Nesmith?

OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Aaron Nesmith's game logs.

Aaron Nesmith

Props & Odds

Points O/U 12.5

Hit rate vs Over 12.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Assists O/U 1.5

Hit rate vs Over 1.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Rebounds O/U 3.5

Hit rate vs Over 3.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Points + Assists O/U 19.5

Hit rate vs Over 19.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Points + Rebounds O/U 16.5

Hit rate vs Over 16.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Assists + Rebounds O/U 4.5

Hit rate vs Over 4.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Points + Assists + Rebounds O/U 14.5

Hit rate vs Over 14.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Blocks O/U 0.5

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Steals O/U 0.5

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Steals + Blocks O/U 1.5

Hit rate vs Over 1.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

3PT Made O/U 2.5

Hit rate vs Over 2.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Double Double O/U 0.5

Hit rate vs Over 0.5

Projected range

Odds analysis

Recent games

FAQ

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