Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes is projected for 2.1 passing touchdowns. The best price on Over 2.5 is +172 at Pinnacle, against OPTIMAL's fair price of +191. Patrick Mahomes has gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns in 3 of the last 10 games (30%), versus the 37% the market implies.
Patrick Mahomes projections and betting odds for Passing Touchdowns. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.
Props & Odds
Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5
2.1projHit rate vs Over 2.5
market implies 37%- Last 5
- 20% 1 of 5
- Last 10
- 30% 3 of 10
- Last 20
- 35% 7 of 20
- Last 40
- 30% 12 of 40
Projected range
projection 2.1Most likely 1.0–3.0 Typical 0.0–4.0
Odds analysis
Over 2.5 · fair +191-
Optimal
+191
-
Pinnacle +172
Recent games
| Opp | Date | W/L | CMP | ATT | YDS | TDS | INT | ATT | YDS | TDS | Any TD | FM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ DEN | 11-01 | L | 30 | 41 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SEA | 10-26 | L | 19 | 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs LAC | 10-18 | W | 23 | 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ OAK | 10-04 | W | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ MIA | 09-27 | W | 20 | 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs IND | 09-21 | W | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs DEN | 09-15 | W | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs LAC | 12-14 | L | 16 | 28 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs HOU | 12-08 | L | 14 | 33 | 160 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ DAL | 11-27 | L | 23 | 34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs IND | 11-23 | W | 29 | 46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ DEN | 11-16 | L | 29 | 45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ BUF | 11-02 | L | 15 | 34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs WAS | 10-28 | W | 25 | 34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs OAK | 10-19 | W | 26 | 35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs DET | 10-13 | W | 22 | 30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ JAX | 10-07 | L | 29 | 41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs BAL | 09-28 | W | 25 | 37 | 270 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ NYG | 09-22 | W | 22 | 37 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs PHI | 09-14 | L | 16 | 29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ LAC | 09-06 | L | 24 | 39 | 258 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ PHI | 02-09 | L | 21 | 32 | 257 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs BUF | 01-26 | W | 18 | 26 | 245 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| vs HOU | 01-18 | W | 16 | 25 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ PIT | 12-25 | W | 29 | 38 | 320 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FAQ
What is Patrick Mahomes's passing touchdowns projection?
OPTIMAL projects Patrick Mahomes for 2.1 passing touchdowns. Half of the projected outcomes for passing touchdowns fall between 1.0 and 3.0, and four in five between 0.0 and 4.0.
What are the best odds on Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns?
The best price on Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns is +172 at Pinnacle. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is +191.
How often has Patrick Mahomes gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns?
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 2.5 passing touchdowns in 1 of the last 5, 3 of the last 10, 7 of the last 20 and 12 of the last 40 games. The best price implies 37%.
What props does Patrick Mahomes have?
Sportsbooks have posted 7 props for Patrick Mahomes: completions, passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing attempts and rushing yards. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.
How does OPTIMAL project Patrick Mahomes?
OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Patrick Mahomes's game logs.