Patrick Mahomes Projections & Betting Odds | OPTIMAL
OPTIMAL

Patrick Mahomes

kc QB NFL

Patrick Mahomes is projected for 22.1 completions. The best price on Over 21.5 is -118 at Fanduel, against OPTIMAL's fair price of -114. Patrick Mahomes has gone over 21.5 completions in 4 of the last 10 games (40%), versus the 54% the market implies.

Patrick Mahomes projections and betting odds for Completions, Passing Attempts, Passing Yards, and more. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Nov 8

Props & Odds

Completions O/U 21.5

22.1proj

Hit rate vs Over 21.5

market implies 54%
Last 5
40%
2 of 5
Last 10
40%
4 of 10
Last 20
60%
12 of 20
Last 40
60%
24 of 40
Last 12 games against a line of 21.5
line 21.5
29 @DEN
29 vs IND
23 @DAL
14 vs HOU
16 vs LAC
15 vs DEN
32 vs IND
20 @MIA
15 @OAK
23 vs LAC
19 @SEA
30 @DEN

Projected range

projection 22.1
7.9 36.2

Most likely 18.0–26.2 Typical 14.3–29.9

Odds analysis

Over 21.5 · fair -114
  • Optimal -114
  • Fanduel -118
  • Novig -120
  • theScore -120
  • betr -120
  • Bally Bet -122
  • betPARX -122
  • BetRivers -122
  • SugarHouse -122
  • BetMGM -125
  • Kalshi -126
  • Coinbase -126
  • DraftKings -126
  • Onyx Odds -126
  • Courtside -126
  • ProphetX -127
  • Pinnacle -128
  • Fliff -130
  • BetOnline -130
  • Splash Sports -137
  • Sleeper -139
  • ParlayPlay -139

Recent games

Opp Date W/L CMP ATT YDS TDS INT ATT YDS TDS Any TD FM
@ DEN 11-01 L 30 41 321 3 0 2 6 0 0 0
@ SEA 10-26 L 19 33 165 0 1 2 14 0 0 0
vs LAC 10-18 W 23 30 272 0 1 5 16 0 0 0
@ OAK 10-04 W 15 30 225 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
@ MIA 09-27 W 20 24 246 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
vs IND 09-21 W 32 47 382 3 0 2 17 0 0 0
vs DEN 09-15 W 15 27 184 2 1 7 23 1 1 0
vs LAC 12-14 L 16 28 189 0 1 2 15 1 1 0
vs HOU 12-08 L 14 33 160 0 3 7 59 0 0 0
@ DAL 11-27 L 23 34 261 4 0 3 30 0 0 0
vs IND 11-23 W 29 46 352 0 1 4 30 0 0 0
@ DEN 11-16 L 29 45 276 1 1 1 3 0 0 0
@ BUF 11-02 L 15 34 250 0 1 1 5 0 0 0
vs WAS 10-28 W 25 34 299 3 2 4 30 0 0 0
vs OAK 10-19 W 26 35 286 3 0 4 28 0 0 0
vs DET 10-13 W 22 30 257 3 0 10 32 1 1 0
@ JAX 10-07 L 29 41 318 1 1 6 60 1 1 0
vs BAL 09-28 W 25 37 270 4 0 4 5 0 0 0
@ NYG 09-22 W 22 37 224 1 0 5 2 0 0 0
vs PHI 09-14 L 16 29 187 1 1 7 66 1 1 0
@ LAC 09-06 L 24 39 258 1 0 6 57 1 1 0
@ PHI 02-09 L 21 32 257 3 2 4 25 0 0 0
vs BUF 01-26 W 18 26 245 1 0 11 43 2 2 0
vs HOU 01-18 W 16 25 177 1 0 7 14 0 0 0
@ PIT 12-25 W 29 38 320 3 0 1 12 0 0 0

FAQ

What are Patrick Mahomes's projections?

OPTIMAL projects Patrick Mahomes for 248.0 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns and 18.1 rushing yards. Half of the projected outcomes for completions fall between 18.0 and 26.2, and four in five between 14.3 and 29.9.

What are the best odds on Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 completions?

The best price on Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 completions is -118 at Fanduel, among 21 sportsbooks pricing the line. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is -114.

How often has Patrick Mahomes gone over 21.5 completions?

Patrick Mahomes has gone over 21.5 completions in 2 of the last 5, 4 of the last 10, 12 of the last 20 and 24 of the last 40 games. The best price implies 54%.

What props does Patrick Mahomes have?

Sportsbooks have posted 11 props for Patrick Mahomes: completions, passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and more. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.

How does OPTIMAL project Patrick Mahomes?

OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Patrick Mahomes's game logs.

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