Patrick Mahomes Completions
Patrick Mahomes is projected for 22.1 completions. The best price on Over 21.5 is -128 at Pinnacle, against OPTIMAL's fair price of -116. Patrick Mahomes has gone over 21.5 completions in 4 of the last 10 games (40%), versus the 56% the market implies.
Patrick Mahomes projections and betting odds for Completions. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.
Props & Odds
Completions O/U 21.5
22.1projHit rate vs Over 21.5
market implies 56%- Last 5
- 40% 2 of 5
- Last 10
- 40% 4 of 10
- Last 20
- 60% 12 of 20
- Last 40
- 60% 24 of 40
Projected range
projection 22.1Most likely 17.9–26.2 Typical 14.2–29.9
Odds analysis
Over 21.5 · fair -116-
Optimal
-116
-
Pinnacle -128
Recent games
| Opp | Date | W/L | CMP | ATT | YDS | TDS | INT | ATT | YDS | TDS | Any TD | FM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ DEN | 11-01 | L | 30 | 41 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SEA | 10-26 | L | 19 | 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs LAC | 10-18 | W | 23 | 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ OAK | 10-04 | W | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ MIA | 09-27 | W | 20 | 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs IND | 09-21 | W | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs DEN | 09-15 | W | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs LAC | 12-14 | L | 16 | 28 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs HOU | 12-08 | L | 14 | 33 | 160 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ DAL | 11-27 | L | 23 | 34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs IND | 11-23 | W | 29 | 46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ DEN | 11-16 | L | 29 | 45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ BUF | 11-02 | L | 15 | 34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs WAS | 10-28 | W | 25 | 34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs OAK | 10-19 | W | 26 | 35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs DET | 10-13 | W | 22 | 30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ JAX | 10-07 | L | 29 | 41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| vs BAL | 09-28 | W | 25 | 37 | 270 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ NYG | 09-22 | W | 22 | 37 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs PHI | 09-14 | L | 16 | 29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ LAC | 09-06 | L | 24 | 39 | 258 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ PHI | 02-09 | L | 21 | 32 | 257 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| vs BUF | 01-26 | W | 18 | 26 | 245 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| vs HOU | 01-18 | W | 16 | 25 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ PIT | 12-25 | W | 29 | 38 | 320 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FAQ
What is Patrick Mahomes's completions projection?
OPTIMAL projects Patrick Mahomes for 22.1 completions. Half of the projected outcomes for completions fall between 17.9 and 26.2, and four in five between 14.2 and 29.9.
What are the best odds on Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 completions?
The best price on Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 completions is -128 at Pinnacle. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is -116.
How often has Patrick Mahomes gone over 21.5 completions?
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 21.5 completions in 2 of the last 5, 4 of the last 10, 12 of the last 20 and 24 of the last 40 games. The best price implies 56%.
What props does Patrick Mahomes have?
Sportsbooks have posted 7 props for Patrick Mahomes: completions, passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing attempts and rushing yards. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.
How does OPTIMAL project Patrick Mahomes?
OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Patrick Mahomes's game logs.