Aaron Nola Earned Runs Projections & Betting Odds | OPTIMAL
OPTIMAL

Aaron Nola Earned Runs

phi SP MLB

Aaron Nola is projected for 1.8 earned runs. The best price on Over 1.5 is -102 at Onyx Odds, against OPTIMAL's fair price of -106. Aaron Nola has gone over 1.5 earned runs in 5 of the last 10 games (50%), versus the 50% the market implies.

Aaron Nola projections and betting odds for Earned Runs. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Oct 1

Props & Odds

Earned Runs O/U 1.5

1.8proj

Hit rate vs Over 1.5

market implies 50%
Last 5
80%
4 of 5
Last 10
50%
5 of 10
Last 20
70%
14 of 20
Last 52
75%
39 of 52
Last 12 games against a line of 1.5
line 1.5
3 vs WSH
2 vs TOR
1 @MIN
1 vs MIA
2 @SEA
1 @ARI
1 vs ATL
2 @ATL
0 @NYM
4 vs MIL
3 vs TB
3 @ATL

Projected range

projection 1.8
0.0 5.0

Most likely 1.0–3.0 Typical 0.0–4.0

Odds analysis

Over 1.5 · fair -106
  • Onyx Odds -102 +1.0%
  • DraftKings -102
  • Courtside -102
  • Optimal -106
  • Novig -115
  • BetOnline -119
  • PrizePicks -120
  • Pinnacle -120
  • betr -120
  • Caesars -122
  • Fliff -125
  • Polymarket US -126
  • ProphetX -127
  • Sleeper -128
  • Sportsbook Rhode Island -132
  • BetMGM -135
  • Fanatics -135
  • Splash Sports -137

Recent games

Opp Date W/L W IP OUT HIT K BB R
@ ATL 10-02 L 0 1.7 5 2 1 2 3
vs TB 09-26 L 0 1.0 3 4 0 0 3
vs MIL 09-23 L 0 6.0 18 4 8 1 4
@ NYM 09-17 W 1 7.0 21 3 4 3 0
@ ATL 09-11 L 0 6.3 19 6 3 3 2
vs ATL 09-06 L 0 7.0 21 4 5 1 1
@ ARI 09-01 W 1 5.0 15 5 4 2 1
@ SEA 08-26 L 0 6.0 18 3 7 3 2
vs MIA 08-19 W 1 7.0 21 5 8 0 1
@ MIN 08-13 W 1 5.0 15 5 9 3 1
vs TOR 08-08 L 0 5.0 15 6 8 2 2
vs WSH 08-03 W 0 6.0 18 6 5 2 3
@ MIA 07-28 L 0 5.7 17 5 4 3 1
vs LAD 07-22 L 0 5.3 16 7 4 1 5
vs NYM 07-16 L 0 6.0 18 6 6 4 3
@ DET 07-10 L 0 5.0 15 3 8 2 2
@ KC 07-05 L 0 7.0 21 7 7 0 3
vs PIT 06-29 L 0 4.3 13 8 5 2 7
@ WSH 06-24 W 0 5.0 15 3 5 2 2
vs NYM 06-18 L 0 5.0 15 7 6 1 2
@ MIL 06-13 W 0 4.7 14 6 3 2 3
vs CWS 06-07 W 0 4.3 13 6 4 4 5
vs SD 06-02 W 0 5.0 15 4 8 0 2
@ SD 05-27 W 1 6.0 18 3 5 0 2
vs CIN 05-20 L 0 5.0 15 8 5 0 4

FAQ

What is Aaron Nola's earned runs projection?

OPTIMAL projects Aaron Nola for 1.8 earned runs. Half of the projected outcomes for earned runs fall between 1.0 and 3.0, and four in five between 0.0 and 4.0.

What are the best odds on Aaron Nola Over 1.5 earned runs?

The best price on Aaron Nola Over 1.5 earned runs is -102 at Onyx Odds, among 17 sportsbooks pricing the line. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is -106.

How often has Aaron Nola gone over 1.5 earned runs?

Aaron Nola has gone over 1.5 earned runs in 4 of the last 5, 5 of the last 10, 14 of the last 20 and 39 of the last 52 games. The best price implies 50%.

What props does Aaron Nola have?

Sportsbooks have posted 5 props for Aaron Nola: strikeouts, outs, hits allowed, walks and earned runs. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.

How does OPTIMAL project Aaron Nola?

OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Aaron Nola's game logs.

Related Players

Adolis Garcia

OF phi

Aidan Miller

IF phi

Alan Rangel

RP phi

Alec Bohm

IF phi

Alex McFarlane

SP phi

Andrew Hoffmann

RP phi

Andrew Painter

SP phi

Brad Keller

RP phi