Aaron Nola Projections & Betting Odds | OPTIMAL
OPTIMAL

Aaron Nola

phi SP MLB

Aaron Nola is projected for 3.4 strikeouts. The best price on Over 3.5 is +122 at Novig, against OPTIMAL's fair price of +116. Aaron Nola has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in 7 of the last 10 games (70%), versus the 45% the market implies.

Aaron Nola projections and betting odds for Strikeouts, Outs, Hits Allowed, and more. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Oct 1

Props & Odds

Strikeouts O/U 3.5

3.4proj

Hit rate vs Over 3.5

market implies 45%
Last 5
40%
2 of 5
Last 10
70%
7 of 10
Last 20
85%
17 of 20
Last 52
83%
43 of 52
Last 12 games against a line of 3.5
line 3.5
5 vs WSH
8 vs TOR
9 @MIN
8 vs MIA
7 @SEA
4 @ARI
5 vs ATL
3 @ATL
4 @NYM
8 vs MIL
0 vs TB
1 @ATL

Projected range

projection 3.4
0.0 8.9

Most likely 1.9–5.0 Typical 0.4–6.4

Odds analysis

Over 3.5 · fair +116
  • Novig +122 +1.3%
  • Optimal +116
  • Polymarket US +110
  • Kalshi +109
  • Coinbase +109
  • Pinnacle +106
  • Underdog Fantasy +104
  • Courtside +103
  • Onyx Odds +103
  • DraftKings +103
  • Caesars +102
  • Fanatics +100
  • Fanduel +100
  • Sportsbook Rhode Island -102
  • ProphetX -104
  • Hard Rock Bet (IL,OH) -105
  • Hard Rock Bet (FL) -105
  • Hard Rock Bet (IN,CO,NJ,TN,VA,AZ,MI) -105
  • BetMGM -105
  • ParlayPlay -106
  • Rebet -111
  • Fliff -115
  • Sleeper -116
  • PrizePicks -120
  • theScore -120
  • BookMaker -121
  • DraftKings Pick6 -122
  • betPARX -148
  • Dabble -157

Recent games

Opp Date W/L W IP OUT HIT K BB R
@ ATL 10-02 L 0 1.7 5 2 1 2 3
vs TB 09-26 L 0 1.0 3 4 0 0 3
vs MIL 09-23 L 0 6.0 18 4 8 1 4
@ NYM 09-17 W 1 7.0 21 3 4 3 0
@ ATL 09-11 L 0 6.3 19 6 3 3 2
vs ATL 09-06 L 0 7.0 21 4 5 1 1
@ ARI 09-01 W 1 5.0 15 5 4 2 1
@ SEA 08-26 L 0 6.0 18 3 7 3 2
vs MIA 08-19 W 1 7.0 21 5 8 0 1
@ MIN 08-13 W 1 5.0 15 5 9 3 1
vs TOR 08-08 L 0 5.0 15 6 8 2 2
vs WSH 08-03 W 0 6.0 18 6 5 2 3
@ MIA 07-28 L 0 5.7 17 5 4 3 1
vs LAD 07-22 L 0 5.3 16 7 4 1 5
vs NYM 07-16 L 0 6.0 18 6 6 4 3
@ DET 07-10 L 0 5.0 15 3 8 2 2
@ KC 07-05 L 0 7.0 21 7 7 0 3
vs PIT 06-29 L 0 4.3 13 8 5 2 7
@ WSH 06-24 W 0 5.0 15 3 5 2 2
vs NYM 06-18 L 0 5.0 15 7 6 1 2
@ MIL 06-13 W 0 4.7 14 6 3 2 3
vs CWS 06-07 W 0 4.3 13 6 4 4 5
vs SD 06-02 W 0 5.0 15 4 8 0 2
@ SD 05-27 W 1 6.0 18 3 5 0 2
vs CIN 05-20 L 0 5.0 15 8 5 0 4

FAQ

What are Aaron Nola's projections?

OPTIMAL projects Aaron Nola for 3.4 strikeouts, 9.9 outs and 3.4 hits allowed. Half of the projected outcomes for strikeouts fall between 1.9 and 5.0, and four in five between 0.4 and 6.4.

What are the best odds on Aaron Nola Over 3.5 strikeouts?

The best price on Aaron Nola Over 3.5 strikeouts is +122 at Novig, among 28 sportsbooks pricing the line. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is +116.

How often has Aaron Nola gone over 3.5 strikeouts?

Aaron Nola has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in 2 of the last 5, 7 of the last 10, 17 of the last 20 and 43 of the last 52 games. The best price implies 45%.

What props does Aaron Nola have?

Sportsbooks have posted 5 props for Aaron Nola: strikeouts, outs, hits allowed, walks and earned runs. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.

How does OPTIMAL project Aaron Nola?

OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Aaron Nola's game logs.

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