Merrill Kelly Earned Runs Projections & Betting Odds - Optimal Bet
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Merrill Kelly Earned Runs

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Merrill Kelly is projected for 3.0 earned runs. The best price on Over 2.5 is -134 at Sportsbook Rhode Island, against a fair line of -117. He has cleared 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games (60%), versus the 57% the market implies.

Merrill Kelly projections and betting odds for Earned Runs. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Sep 23

Props & Odds

Earned Runs O/U 2.5

3.0proj

Hit rate vs Over 2.5

market implies 57%
Last 5
60%
3 of 5
Last 10
60%
6 of 10
Last 20
50%
10 of 20
Last 60
43%
26 of 60
Last 12 games against a line of 2.5
line 2.5
1 vs STL
2 vs OAK
0 @PIT
5 @CLE
1 vs LAD
6 vs COL
6 @BOS
3 vs CHC
0 @SF
3 @HOU
1 vs TEX
3 vs MIA

Projected range

projection 3.0
0.0 8.0

Most likely 2.0–4.0 Typical 1.0–5.0

Odds analysis

Over 2.5 · fair -117
  • Fair odds -117
  • Sportsbook Rhode Island -134
  • Fanatics -140
  • Fliff -145
  • ProphetX -146
  • Underdog Fantasy -148
  • Sleeper -149

Recent games

Opp Date W/L W IP OUT HIT K BB R
vs MIA 09-17 L 0 4.7 14 7 9 2 3
vs TEX 09-12 W 0 4.3 13 2 3 3 1
@ HOU 09-05 L 0 6.0 18 7 4 0 3
@ SF 08-29 W 1 7.0 21 2 7 4 0
vs CHC 08-25 L 0 5.7 17 5 4 3 3
@ BOS 08-18 L 0 4.0 12 7 2 4 6
vs COL 08-12 L 0 5.0 15 6 2 3 6
vs LAD 08-08 W 0 5.7 17 2 4 4 1
@ CLE 08-02 L 0 5.0 15 8 5 4 5
@ PIT 07-27 L 0 5.7 17 4 6 1 0
vs OAK 07-22 W 1 5.0 15 5 3 1 2
vs STL 07-18 L 0 5.0 15 4 3 2 1
@ SD 07-10 W 1 7.0 21 3 6 3 1
vs MIL 07-05 W 1 5.0 15 8 6 2 2
@ TB 06-28 L 0 6.0 18 8 3 2 5
@ STL 06-22 L 0 6.0 18 7 2 3 3
vs LAA 06-17 L 0 5.3 16 11 4 1 6
@ MIA 06-11 L 0 6.0 18 4 1 2 2
vs WSH 06-06 L 0 5.0 15 6 4 3 7
@ SEA 05-31 L 0 5.3 16 8 2 2 2
@ SF 05-25 W 1 7.0 21 4 4 2 2
vs SF 05-20 W 1 6.0 18 8 4 0 3
@ COL 05-16 W 1 9.0 27 4 3 0 1
vs NYM 05-09 W 1 7.0 21 3 6 3 1
@ CHC 05-03 L 0 4.3 13 8 5 3 6

FAQ

Where can I find Merrill Kelly Earned Runs odds today?

This page shows live Merrill Kelly Earned Runs odds from every major sportsbook including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and more. Lines update in close to real-time so you can compare and find the best value.

How are Merrill Kelly Earned Runs projections calculated?

Optimal Bet reverse engineers player prop odds across sportsbooks and betting exchanges to calculate projections. Instead of a single number, we generate a full probability distribution for Merrill Kelly's Earned Runs so you can see the range of likely outcomes and where the value sits.

What sportsbooks offer Merrill Kelly Earned Runs props?

Optimal Bet compares Merrill Kelly Earned Runs lines from all major US sportsbooks and exchanges including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics, Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX, Novig, and more. Availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Should I bet the over or under on Merrill Kelly Earned Runs?

Use the projections section above to see how Merrill Kelly's projected Earned Runs compares to each sportsbook's line. The best approach is top-down: compare odds across books to find where one sportsbook is offering better value than the rest. When a line is significantly off from the consensus, that's where the edge is.

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