Merrill Kelly Earned Runs Projections & Betting Odds | OPTIMAL
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Merrill Kelly Earned Runs

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Merrill Kelly is projected for 2.7 earned runs. The best price on Over 2.5 is -125 at DraftKings, against OPTIMAL's fair price of -106. Merrill Kelly has gone over 2.5 earned runs in 6 of the last 10 games (60%), versus the 56% the market implies.

Merrill Kelly projections and betting odds for Earned Runs. Compare lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other sportsbooks.

Next Game Sep 23

Props & Odds

Earned Runs O/U 2.5

2.7proj

Hit rate vs Over 2.5

market implies 56%
Last 5
40%
2 of 5
Last 10
60%
6 of 10
Last 20
50%
10 of 20
Last 61
43%
26 of 61
Last 12 games against a line of 2.5
line 2.5
2 vs OAK
0 @PIT
5 @CLE
1 vs LAD
6 vs COL
6 @BOS
3 vs CHC
0 @SF
3 @HOU
1 vs TEX
3 vs MIA
2 @COL

Projected range

projection 2.7
0.0 7.0

Most likely 2.0–4.0 Typical 1.0–5.0

Odds analysis

Over 2.5 · fair -106
  • Optimal -106
  • DraftKings -125
  • Onyx Odds -125

Recent games

Opp Date W/L W IP OUT HIT K BB R
@ COL 09-24 W 1 5.3 16 4 2 1 2
vs MIA 09-17 L 0 4.7 14 7 9 2 3
vs TEX 09-12 W 0 4.3 13 2 3 3 1
@ HOU 09-05 L 0 6.0 18 7 4 0 3
@ SF 08-29 W 1 7.0 21 2 7 4 0
vs CHC 08-25 L 0 5.7 17 5 4 3 3
@ BOS 08-18 L 0 4.0 12 7 2 4 6
vs COL 08-12 L 0 5.0 15 6 2 3 6
vs LAD 08-08 W 0 5.7 17 2 4 4 1
@ CLE 08-02 L 0 5.0 15 8 5 4 5
@ PIT 07-27 L 0 5.7 17 4 6 1 0
vs OAK 07-22 W 1 5.0 15 5 3 1 2
vs STL 07-18 L 0 5.0 15 4 3 2 1
@ SD 07-10 W 1 7.0 21 3 6 3 1
vs MIL 07-05 W 1 5.0 15 8 6 2 2
@ TB 06-28 L 0 6.0 18 8 3 2 5
@ STL 06-22 L 0 6.0 18 7 2 3 3
vs LAA 06-17 L 0 5.3 16 11 4 1 6
@ MIA 06-11 L 0 6.0 18 4 1 2 2
vs WSH 06-06 L 0 5.0 15 6 4 3 7
@ SEA 05-31 L 0 5.3 16 8 2 2 2
@ SF 05-25 W 1 7.0 21 4 4 2 2
vs SF 05-20 W 1 6.0 18 8 4 0 3
@ COL 05-16 W 1 9.0 27 4 3 0 1
vs NYM 05-09 W 1 7.0 21 3 6 3 1

FAQ

What is Merrill Kelly's earned runs projection?

OPTIMAL projects Merrill Kelly for 2.7 earned runs. Half of the projected outcomes for earned runs fall between 2.0 and 4.0, and four in five between 1.0 and 5.0.

What are the best odds on Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 earned runs?

The best price on Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 earned runs is -125 at DraftKings, among 2 sportsbooks pricing the line. OPTIMAL's fair price, with the vig taken out, is -106.

How often has Merrill Kelly gone over 2.5 earned runs?

Merrill Kelly has gone over 2.5 earned runs in 2 of the last 5, 6 of the last 10, 10 of the last 20 and 26 of the last 61 games. The best price implies 56%.

What props does Merrill Kelly have?

Sportsbooks have posted 4 props for Merrill Kelly: strikeouts, outs, walks and earned runs. Each one on this page shows OPTIMAL's projection, the hit rate against the line and every book's price.

How does OPTIMAL project Merrill Kelly?

OPTIMAL builds its projections from the player prop odds posted across sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Instead of a single number it gives a full range of outcomes for each stat, so you can see how likely a line is to hit. Hit rates come from Merrill Kelly's game logs.

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