If you’re only betting spreads and totals, you’re missing where the real money is. Player props are the most consistently mispriced market in sports betting. The edges are larger, the disagreements between books are wider, and the sportsbooks have less incentive to sharpen the lines.
Why Props Are Mispriced
Sportsbooks Have Limited Resources
Every major sportsbook has a team of traders setting lines. For the NFL Sunday main slate, they need to set spreads, totals, moneylines, and first-half lines for ~14 games. That’s maybe 70 markets.
Now add player props. Each game might have 50+ player prop markets — points, rebounds, assists, passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, strikeouts, shots on goal. Across a full NFL Sunday, that’s 700+ player prop lines that need to be set.
Books don’t have enough traders to sharp-price all of those. They lean on models and formulas, adjust quickly for the main markets where sharp money flows, and leave the props with wider margins and less precise pricing. That imprecision is your edge.
Less Sharp Action
Professional bettors and syndicates focus on the main markets — sides, totals, moneylines. That’s where they can get the most money down at the best prices. Most sharps can’t move serious volume on player props because the limits are lower.
This means the natural market-correcting mechanism is weaker on props. When a sharp bettor slams a side, the book moves the line. When a prop is mispriced, it often stays mispriced longer because the corrective pressure isn’t there.
Books Disagree More
On a standard NFL spread, you might see a half-point difference between books. On a player prop, we regularly see 10-20 cent differences in juice and full-point disagreements on the line itself.
Example on any given NFL Sunday:
| Sportsbook | Jalen Hurts Passing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | O225.5 | -115 |
| FanDuel | O222.5 | -110 |
| BetMGM | O227.5 | -105 |
| Caesars | O225.5 | -120 |
Three different lines across four books. If you calculate the no-vig fair value and one book is significantly off, that’s a +EV opportunity. On main markets, this level of disagreement is rare. On props, it’s the norm.
Where the Biggest Prop Edges Are
NFL: Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Yards
NFL passing yards are one of the highest-volume prop markets, and the books’ models still disagree frequently. Rushing and receiving yards have even less precision — especially for secondary receiving options and running backs in committee situations.
NBA: Points, Rebounds, Assists
The NBA plays 82 games per team, which means there’s excellent data to model player performance. But the pace of the season creates opportunities: back-to-backs, rest days, lineup changes, and blowout-risk games all create spots where the books are slow to adjust.
MLB: Strikeouts and Hits
Pitcher strikeout props are one of the most modelable markets in sports. Pitcher vs. batter matchup data, park factors, and lineup construction all feed into sharp projections. Books often set these lines off season averages without fully incorporating the day’s specific context.
NHL: Shots on Goal
Lower-volume market with less book attention. Models that account for opponent defense quality, game script expectations, and power play time find consistent edges here.
How to Find +EV Props
Step 1: Calculate Fair Value
The foundation is knowing what a line should be. We do this by stripping the vig from the sharpest books (the ones with the lowest hold and most accurate lines) to calculate the no-vig fair probability.
Step 2: Compare Every Book
Once you know fair value, compare it against every sportsbook’s offering. If fair value for a prop is 50% (even odds) and one book is offering +110, that’s a +EV opportunity — you’re getting paid better than the true probability warrants.
Step 3: Filter for Edge Size
Not every +EV opportunity is worth taking. A bet with 0.5% edge barely covers the vig. Look for edges of 3%+ on props. These exist far more often than you’d think — on a busy NFL Sunday, there can be dozens of player props with 5%+ edges across books.
Step 4: Verify the Line is Still Available
Props move fast once sharp bettors find them. By the time you identify an edge and get to the sportsbook, the line may have shifted. Speed matters — real-time odds tracking tools help you catch these edges before they disappear.
The Prop Bet Trap
Not all prop betting is +EV. Let’s be clear about what doesn’t work:
“I think Mahomes throws for 350 yards because I watched the game last week.” That’s a hunch, not an edge. The book has a model too, and it’s probably better than your gut feeling from one game.
Same-game parlays. Books love these because they control the correlation pricing. The vig on SGPs is enormous — often 15-30%. The flashy payout hides the massive house edge.
Exotic props. First touchdown scorer, exact score, player to record a triple-double. These are entertainment bets with massive vig. Fun, sure. +EV, almost never.
The edge in props comes from systematic comparison of odds across books using fair value calculations, not from guessing which player will have a big game.
How to Find Prop Edges Systematically
The process for finding +EV props is the same as any other market, just applied at scale:
Pull odds from every major sportsbook — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and more
Calculate no-vig fair odds using the sharpest lines in the market
Compare every book’s player prop odds against that fair value
Flag every prop where a book is offering better than fair — that’s the +EV
On a typical NFL Sunday, there can be 50-100+ player prop edges across all books. Most of these are invisible if you’re only checking one or two apps manually. Odds comparison tools that cover props are essential.
Key Takeaways
Player props are the most mispriced market because books can’t sharp-price hundreds of lines per game
Books disagree on props far more than main markets — 10-20 cent juice differences are common
The edge comes from systematic fair value comparison, not gut feelings about player performance
NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL all have prop markets with consistent +EV opportunities
Avoid SGPs and exotic props — the vig is massive and the house edge is even bigger
Use odds comparison tools to scan props across books — doing it manually across hundreds of markets isn’t realistic
