You went 2-5 yesterday. Down $300 on the week. Your model is broken. The strategy doesn’t work. Time to change everything.
No. Stop. What you’re experiencing has a name: variance. And it’s the single biggest reason good bettors abandon winning strategies.
What is Variance?
Variance is the gap between your expected results and your actual results over a small number of bets. The smaller the sample, the wider the gap.
Think of it this way: if you flip a fair coin 10 times, getting 7 heads isn’t unusual. Getting 8 isn’t even that weird. But if you flip it 10,000 times, you’ll land very close to 5,000 heads. The more flips, the tighter the results cluster around the true probability.
Betting works exactly the same way. Your true edge might be 55% on a set of bets. But over 20 bets, you could easily go 8-12. Over 50 bets, 22-28 is well within normal. It takes hundreds of bets before your actual results start to reliably reflect your true edge.
The Numbers Behind Variance
Let’s say you have a legitimate 55% win rate on -110 bets. Here’s what your results might look like:
| Sample Size | Possible Win Rate Range (95% confidence) | Net Profit Range ($100/bet) |
|---|---|---|
| 50 bets | 41% - 69% | -$1,300 to +$2,100 |
| 100 bets | 45% - 65% | -$1,400 to +$2,700 |
| 250 bets | 49% - 61% | -$800 to +$4,300 |
| 500 bets | 51% - 59% | +$100 to +$6,100 |
| 1,000 bets | 52% - 58% | +$1,400 to +$8,700 |
Read that first row. A 55% bettor can realistically go 41% over 50 bets. That’s a losing stretch that would make anyone question their strategy. But it’s completely normal.
It’s not until you hit 500+ bets that the range tightens enough to confidently say “yes, this is working.”
Real-World Example
Let’s say you’re following a +EV strategy. In your first month, you placed 40 bets and went 17-23. You’re down $800.
Is the strategy broken? Almost certainly not. At 40 bets, you can’t draw any meaningful conclusions about your true win rate. You could be running a 55% strategy that hit a bad patch — and statistically, you should expect bad patches at this sample size.
This is why we track expected profit alongside actual profit. Your expected results based on the EV of each bet you took might show +$500. Your actual results show -$800. That $1,300 gap is variance. As sample size grows, those two numbers converge.
Why Bettors Quit Too Early
The most common timeline looks like this:
Week 1-2: Things go well. The strategy is genius. You tell your friends.
Week 3-4: Cold streak. Down for the month. Something must be wrong.
Month 2: Variance evens out a bit, but you’ve already tweaked your approach three times trying to “fix” it.
Month 3: You’ve abandoned the original strategy entirely.
The strategy was fine. The sample size wasn’t large enough to evaluate it. By changing approach every time variance bit, you never gave the edge time to play out.
The bettors who succeed are the ones who can look at a 2-7 day and say “that’s variance” and place the next bet exactly the same way.
Expected Value vs. Actual Results
Here’s a frame that helps: judge your process, not your outcomes.
Every bet you place has an expected value. A +3% EV bet is a good bet regardless of whether it wins or loses. Over time, making +EV bets will produce profit. The individual results are noise.
Track two things:
Actual P&L — what happened
Expected P&L — what should have happened based on the EV of each bet
In the short term, these will diverge wildly. Over 500+ bets, they converge. If your expected P&L is consistently positive but your actual P&L is down, you’re running below expectation — and it will correct. If your expected P&L is negative, then you have a strategy problem, not a variance problem.
How to Survive Variance
1. Size Your Bets Properly
This is the most important thing. If you’re betting 1-2% of your bankroll per play, even a 10-bet losing streak only costs you 10-20% of your bankroll. Uncomfortable, but survivable. At 5-10% per bet, that same streak threatens to wipe you out.
2. Trust the Process, Not the Day
Stop evaluating your strategy daily. Check in weekly at most. Monthly is better. Quarterly is ideal. The smaller the timeframe you evaluate, the more noise you’re seeing and the worse decisions you’ll make.
3. Track EV, Not Just Wins
When you know the expected value of every bet, you can separate skill from luck. A losing week with positive expected value means you did the right thing. A winning week with negative expected value means you got lucky and should be worried.
4. Pre-Commit to Your Strategy
Before you start, decide: “I will follow this strategy for 500 bets before evaluating.” Write it down. When you’re on bet 150 and down $600, that pre-commitment is what keeps you on track.
5. Zoom Out
If you’re down after 50 bets, zoom out. Where are you after 200? After 500? The trend line matters infinitely more than any individual point on the graph.
The Casino Analogy
Casinos have a 1-5% edge on most games. They lose individual hands constantly. They have losing hours. Some tables have losing days. Do they panic and change their rules?
No. Because they know two things:
Their edge is real (the math proves it)
Sample size will take care of the rest
As a +EV bettor, you’re the casino. You have the edge. Variance is the cost of doing business. Pay it without flinching.
Key Takeaways
Variance means short-term results can look nothing like your true edge
At 50 bets, a 55% bettor can easily show a losing record — that’s normal, not broken
You need 500+ bets before results reliably reflect your true win rate
Track expected profit alongside actual profit to separate skill from luck
The bettors who win long-term are the ones who don’t abandon their strategy during cold streaks
Size your bets small, trust the process, and let the math work over time
