Over/under bets (also called totals) let you bet on the combined score of a game without picking a winner. Unlike spread bets or moneylines, you don’t pick a side. You don’t care who wins — just whether the game is high-scoring or low-scoring.
How Over/Under Bets Work
The sportsbook sets a number representing the expected total combined score. You bet whether the actual total will be over or under that number.
Example: NFL Game
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 47.5 | -110 |
| Under 47.5 | -110 |
Final score: Chiefs 31, Bills 24. Total: 55. Over wins.
Final score: Chiefs 17, Bills 13. Total: 30. Under wins.
The .5 eliminates the possibility of a push. If the total were set at 47 and the combined score landed on exactly 47, all bets would be refunded.
Totals by Sport
Football
NFL game totals typically range from 37 to 55, depending on the matchup. A game between two elite offenses (Chiefs vs. Bills) might be set at 52+. A defensive grind (Steelers vs. Browns in December) might be in the low 40s.
Key factors:
Offensive pace and efficiency
Weather (wind and cold suppress scoring)
Defensive rankings
Indoor vs. outdoor venue
Divisional rivalry (these tend to be lower-scoring)
Basketball
NBA totals are much higher — typically 210 to 240. Basketball totals are considered one of the most modelable markets because scoring is more consistent and pace is measurable.
Key factors:
Pace of play (possessions per game)
Offensive and defensive efficiency ratings
Back-to-back games (fatigue → less defense → higher totals)
Blowout potential (blowouts often go under because the bench plays in garbage time)
Baseball
MLB totals are usually set between 7 and 10 runs. Starting pitching is the dominant factor — a matchup between two aces might have a total of 7, while two bad pitchers could push it to 10+.
Key factors:
Starting pitcher matchups (ERA, strikeout rate, recent form)
Ballpark factors (Coors Field inflates totals, Petco Park suppresses them)
Weather (hot weather = more home runs)
Bullpen availability and quality
Lineup construction (lefty/righty matchups)
Hockey
NHL totals are typically 5.5 or 6, occasionally 6.5. Hockey is low-scoring enough that the half point matters a lot. The difference between 5.5 and 6 is meaningful.
Key factors:
Goaltender matchups
Team shooting and save percentages
Power play / penalty kill efficiency
Back-to-back scheduling
Team Totals
Beyond game totals, most sportsbooks offer team totals — the expected score for a single team.
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs Team Total | Over 27.5 | -115 |
| Chiefs Team Total | Under 27.5 | -105 |
Team totals let you bet on one team’s offensive output without worrying about the other side. If you think the Chiefs will light up a weak defense but aren’t sure about the opponent’s scoring, this isolates the bet.
First Half and Quarter Totals
Sportsbooks also offer totals for specific periods:
First half total: Popular in football and basketball
First quarter total: More volatile, smaller sample within the game
Period totals (hockey): Usually 1.5 per period
These markets are less liquid and often carry more vig, but they attract bettors who have specific views on game flow — like a team that starts fast but fades.
What Moves the Total?
Weather
The single biggest total-mover in football. Wind speeds above 15-20 mph suppress passing games significantly. Cold weather (below 20°F) reduces scoring. Rain and snow affect ball handling and kicking.
A total that opens at 48 might drop to 42 if a severe weather forecast emerges.
Injuries
A starting quarterback injury in football can move the total 3-5 points. A starting pitcher change in baseball can move it 1-2 runs. Key defensive player absences can push totals up.
Betting action
Like spreads, totals move based on where the money goes. Public bettors tend to lean over — people watch sports to see scoring, and the over is more exciting. This public bias occasionally creates value on the under. Understanding how the vig and sportsbook hold work helps you evaluate whether the price is fair.
Line movement as information
When a total moves from 48 to 46 with no obvious news, it often means sharp money came in on the under. Watching line movement tells you what informed bettors think.
Over/Under Strategy
Don’t just bet overs
Recreational bettors bet overs at a much higher rate than unders. The public loves high-scoring games. Sportsbooks know this and often shade totals slightly higher to take advantage. Unders are less popular but historically profitable in certain spots.
Weather is your edge in football
Most casual bettors don’t adjust for weather. When wind, cold, or precipitation rolls in, the books move the total, but often not enough. Weather is one of the few publicly available edges in football totals.
Starting pitching in baseball
The total is overwhelmingly driven by the starting pitching matchup. If a late pitching change is announced and the total hasn’t moved yet, that’s an opportunity. Follow starting pitcher confirmations closely.
Track pace in basketball
NBA pace (possessions per game) is publicly available and directly correlates with scoring. When two fast-paced teams meet, the total should reflect that. When it doesn’t, there may be value.
Key Takeaways
Over/under bets are on the combined score of both teams — you don’t need to pick a winner
Football totals range from ~37-55, NBA ~210-240, MLB ~7-10, NHL ~5.5-6.5
Weather is the biggest factor in football totals and one of the most exploitable edges
Public bettors lean toward overs, which can create value on unders
Team totals let you isolate one team’s scoring if you have a directional view on their offense
For more on how totals odds work, see our guide on how to read betting odds
