A moneyline bet is the simplest wager in sports: pick who wins. No point spread, no margin of victory, no total score. Just the winner. If your team wins by 1 point or 50 points, you cash the same.
How Moneyline Odds Work
Moneyline odds tell you two things: who the favorite is and what the payout will be.
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Lakers | -180 |
| Celtics | +155 |
Negative odds (favorite): The Lakers at -180 means you bet $180 to win $100. The bigger the negative number, the heavier the favorite.
Positive odds (underdog): The Celtics at +155 means a $100 bet wins $155. The bigger the positive number, the bigger the underdog.
Quick Reference
| Moneyline | Bet to Win $100 | Win on $100 Bet | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| -300 | $300 | $33.33 | 75.0% |
| -200 | $200 | $50.00 | 66.7% |
| -150 | $150 | $66.67 | 60.0% |
| -110 | $110 | $90.91 | 52.4% |
| +100 | $100 | $100.00 | 50.0% |
| +150 | $100 | $150.00 | 40.0% |
| +200 | $100 | $200.00 | 33.3% |
| +300 | $100 | $300.00 | 25.0% |
Moneylines by Sport
Football
NFL moneylines are heavily correlated with the spread. A 3-point favorite is typically around -150 to -160 on the moneyline. Moneylines are popular for bettors who like a team to win but don’t want to sweat the margin.
The biggest moneyline value in football often comes from underdogs. The gap between sportsbooks on underdog moneylines can be 20-30 cents. One book might have +200 and another +230 on the same team — that’s a significant difference in potential profit.
Basketball
NBA moneylines can range from pick’em (-110/-110) to extreme favorites (-500 or more). Because basketball has less variance than football (the better team wins more often), heavy favorites hit more frequently. But the payout is proportionally smaller.
Baseball
Baseball is a moneyline-first sport. The standard run line (-1.5/+1.5) exists, but most baseball betting is done on the moneyline because one-run games are extremely common (~30% of MLB games). Moneylines in baseball are typically tighter than football — a big favorite might only be -180.
Hockey
Similar to baseball — the puck line (-1.5/+1.5) is less popular than the moneyline because hockey is low-scoring and one-goal games are frequent. Hockey moneylines rarely exceed -250 even for heavy favorites.
When to Bet Moneylines
You like a team to win but the spread feels risky
If the Packers are -3.5 and you think they’ll win but aren’t sure about covering, a moneyline bet removes the margin-of-victory variable. You pay worse odds for the certainty of only needing a straight win.
Underdog value
Underdog moneylines often have the widest disagreements between sportsbooks. If you find a +200 underdog at one book and +240 at another, that’s $40 more profit on a $100 bet for the exact same outcome.
Baseball and hockey
Since these sports are moneyline-dominated, this is where most of the action and sharpest pricing lives.
Parlays
Moneylines are the most common parlay leg because they’re simple to combine. A 3-team moneyline parlay with favorites at -150 each pays about +230 (roughly 3.3-to-1).
When to Avoid Moneylines
Heavy favorites
Betting -300 or worse ties up a lot of capital for a small return. You’re risking $300 to win $100, and upsets do happen. One loss at -300 wipes out the profit from three wins. The math becomes punishing quickly:
| Record at -300 | Profit per Win | Loss per Loss | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | $100 × 3 = $300 | $300 × 1 = $300 | $0 |
| 9-1 | $100 × 9 = $900 | $300 × 1 = $300 | +$600 |
| 7-3 | $100 × 7 = $700 | $300 × 3 = $900 | -$200 |
At -300, you need to win 75% of the time just to break even. Going 7-3 (70% win rate) is still a losing proposition.
When the spread offers better value
Sometimes the moneyline is overpriced relative to the spread. A 3-point underdog at +130 on the moneyline might be a worse bet than +3 at -110 on the spread. Do the math — don’t assume the moneyline is always the simpler, better choice.
Moneyline vs. Spread: When to Pick Which
| Situation | Better Choice |
|---|---|
| You’re confident in a moderate favorite | Spread (better return for similar risk) |
| You like an underdog to win outright | Moneyline (full payout, no spread cushion needed) |
| The game is in baseball or hockey | Moneyline (standard for these sports) |
| You want to parlay multiple picks | Moneyline (simpler to combine) |
| You like a team but not by a specific margin | Moneyline (removes the margin variable) |
Key Takeaways
Moneyline bets are the simplest wager: pick who wins, no spread involved
Negative odds = favorite (bet more to win less), positive odds = underdog (bet less to win more)
Heavy favorite moneylines (-300+) require extremely high win rates to be profitable
Underdog moneylines often have the biggest price gaps between sportsbooks — always line shop
Baseball and hockey are moneyline-first sports; football and basketball are spread-first
