+EV Circa

Circa EV Cheat Sheet

Every mispriced line on Circa — props, spreads, totals, moneylines — ranked by edge size. Updated live.

Sample data for illustration only — sign in for live picks

Matchup	Side	Line	Bet Type	Odds	Team	Opp	Date	Sport	Win %	EV	1/4 Kelly
J. Quarterback	Over	249.5	Pass Yards	-110	PHI	DAL	07:30 PM	NFL	57.2%	+9.2%	2.53
DAL @ PHI	Home	-3.5	Spread	+105	—	—	07:30 PM	NFL	53.4%	+9.5%	1.31
A. Forward	Over	25.5	Points	-115	LAL	BOS	08:00 PM	NBA	55.7%	+4.1%	1.19
NYM @ LAD	Over	8.5	Total	+115	—	—	04:10 PM	MLB	51.2%	+5.6%	0.97
D. Center	Over	0.5	Goals	+175	EDM	VGK	09:00 PM	NHL	39.8%	+9.5%	1.35
BOS @ LAL	Away	—	Moneyline	-150	—	—	10:00 PM	NBA	63.8%	+4.3%	1.07

Matchup	Side	Line	Bet Type	Odds	Team	Opp	Date	Sport	Win %	EV	1/4 Kelly
K. Winger	Over	2.5	Shots on Goal	+120	TOR	MTL	07:00 PM	NHL	52.8%	+5.6%	1.41
VGK @ EDM	Home	-1.5	Spread	+155	—	—	09:00 PM	NHL	42.6%	+8.6%	1.14
B. Slugger	Over	1.5	Hits	+135	NYY	BOS	01:05 PM	MLB	55.3%	+4.2%	1.05
SEA @ SF	Under	44.5	Total	-112	—	—	04:25 PM	NFL	54.9%	+3.4%	0.86
S. Point Guard	Over	8.5	Assists	-108	GSW	LAC	10:00 PM	NBA	57.1%	+3.8%	0.95
TEX @ HOU	Home	—	Moneyline	-125	—	—	07:10 PM	MLB	56.4%	+2.9%	0.73
W. Stretch Four	Over	3.5	Three Pointers	+100	MIL	CLE	07:30 PM	NBA	53.7%	+2.5%	0.63
P. Defenseman	Over	0.5	Assists	+155	COL	DAL	08:30 PM	NHL	50.6%	+2.1%	0.52
H. End Zone	Over	0.5	Touchdowns	+125	KC	LV	04:25 PM	NFL	51.8%	+1.8%	0.45

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No-Vig Probabilities

We strip the vig from sharp lines to find the true implied probability — then compare it to posted odds to surface +EV edges.

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Lines move fast. Our cheat sheets update continuously so you never miss a mispriced line or a closing edge.

Kelly Sizing Built In

Every row includes 1/4 Kelly units so you know exactly how much to stake relative to your edge. No guesswork.

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How It Works

What is expected value (+EV)?

Expected value measures the average profit or loss per bet over time. A +EV bet means the true probability of winning is higher than what the sportsbook's odds imply — you have an edge. Consistently betting +EV is the foundation of profitable sports betting.

How do you calculate Win % and EV?

We use no-vig odds from sharp sportsbooks to determine the true implied probability of each outcome. Then we compare that probability against the odds you're actually getting. If your odds are better than the true probability, you have +EV.

What is 1/4 Kelly?

The Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager based on your edge. We use 1/4 Kelly (a quarter of full Kelly) as a more conservative approach that reduces variance while still sizing bets proportionally to your edge. Higher values mean a stronger edge.

How often is the data updated?

The cheat sheet updates continuously as odds move across sportsbooks. When a line shifts, the EV, Win %, and Kelly sizing recalculate automatically so you always see the latest edges.