Every play in Optimal+ comes with a letter grade, from B up to A+. It’s the first thing you see on a play, and the fastest way to work through a busy slate.
It’s also easy to misread. A grade is not a prediction that a bet wins tonight. It’s a summary of how good the bet is over the long run: how big the edge is, how much support it has, and how much of your bankroll it deserves.
The Five Grades
| Grade | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| A+ | The top tier. Edge, win probability, and stake all line up |
| A | A strong edge with strong support behind it |
| A- | Strong across more than one dimension, not just raw EV |
| B+ | A solid edge with some support behind it |
| B | Cleared the bar. A real, positive edge |
The feed sorts by grade by default, so the strongest plays sit at the top.
Every Graded Play Already Has an Edge
The most important thing to know about grades: a B is not a bad bet.
A play has to clear the model’s minimum requirements before it reaches the feed at all. Anything without a real positive expected value edge is filtered out first. Grades don’t separate good bets from bad ones. They separate good bets from better ones.
That changes the question you should ask. It isn’t whether a B has an edge. It does. The question is where to spend your bankroll, your time, and your sportsbook accounts first.
The Three Numbers Behind the Grade
Next to most grades you’ll see three numbers. They’re built from the same information as the grade, so it pays to know exactly what each one means.
EV (Expected Value)
EV is the average return per dollar if you placed the same bet at the same price thousands of times.
EV = (Win Probability × Decimal Odds) − 1
A bet at -110 (1.909 in decimal odds) with a 55% true win probability has an EV of (0.55 × 1.909) − 1 = +5.0%. Every $100 at that price returns $5 in profit on average.
Win %
Win % is the model’s estimate of how often the bet actually wins. It is not the sportsbook’s implied probability. The gap between those two numbers is the edge.
At -110, the break-even win rate is 52.4%. If the model’s Win % is 55%, you’re being paid like a 52.4% bet on something that should hit 55% of the time.
Units
Units are the suggested stake, based on a fractional Kelly Criterion. One unit is 1% of your bankroll, so a play showing 1.5 units suggests risking 1.5% of your bankroll.
Kelly sizes a bet by both the edge and the odds, so units already rise for stronger spots and shrink for weaker ones. The fractional part trims every stake to keep the swings survivable.
Try the kelly-criterion-calculator→
Why the Highest EV Isn’t Always the Highest Grade
If a grade were just EV, you wouldn’t need grades. You could sort by the EV column. Here’s why that would be a mistake.
Compare two plays (illustrative numbers):
| Play 1 | Play 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds | -110 | +400 |
| Model Win % | 55% | 22% |
| EV | +5.0% | +10.0% |
| Full Kelly stake | 5.5% of bankroll | 2.5% of bankroll |
| Chance of losing 5 straight | 1.8% | 28.9% |
Play 2 has double the EV. It also loses 78% of the time, supports less than half the stake, and runs into a five-bet losing streak more than a quarter of the time. Sized with Kelly, Play 1 actually grows a bankroll faster, because it supports a bigger bet with far smaller swings.
Both are +EV bets. Deciding which one is stronger takes more than one number, and that’s the job a grade does. A high grade means a play that scores well across multiple dimensions, not just raw EV.
Grades Are Model-Specific
Optimal+ runs several models, and each one grades on what matters for its kind of bet. Compare grades within a model, not across models.
| Model | What the grade leans on |
|---|---|
| Optimal EV | The edge against a consensus fair price, the win probability behind it, and the stake it supports |
| Sharp Books | The same ingredients, measured against a single sharp sportsbook’s no-vig line |
| Trends | How much stake the most conservative read of a player’s hit rates and projection supports |
| Arbitrage | The size of the return. Once both bets are placed, the result doesn’t change your profit |
An A on an arbitrage and an A on a Trends play are different kinds of A. Use the model filter when you want an apples-to-apples comparison.
What a Grade Is Not
It’s not a win probability. An A+ can lose and a B can win. Win % is shown separately for a reason, and even a 60% bet loses four times out of ten.
It’s not permanent. Grades come from the prices on the board right now. When a sportsbook moves its line, the edge changes and the grade can change with it. If the edge falls below the minimum, the play leaves the feed.
It’s not a reason to bet bigger. Units already scale your stake to the edge. Tripling your stake on an A+ counts the same edge twice and multiplies your risk.
It’s not a verdict on one night. Grades are built for volume. A strong grade on a play that loses was still a strong bet. Variance decides nights. Edge decides seasons.
How to Use Grades
Start at the top. The feed sorts by grade, so if you only have time for a few bets, begin there.
Filter by model and sport. Pick the models that fit how you bet, then compare grades inside them.
Set alerts by grade. Optimal+ notifications can be filtered by rating, sport, and model. If you only want to hear about A- and above, set it that way.
Size with units, not letters. Let units set the stake. Let the grade set your priorities.
Check the price before you bet. A grade belongs to the odds shown. If your sportsbook has moved, the grade may no longer apply.
Judge results over hundreds of bets. Track every bet and compare your price to the closing line. Beating the close is a better early signal than your win-loss record.
Common Questions
“Should I only bet A+ plays?”
You can, but you’re trading volume for comfort. Every graded play has an edge, and +EV betting pays off through volume. A tighter filter means fewer bets and slower growth. It’s a reasonable choice if your bankroll, time, or number of sportsbook accounts is limited.
“Why does a B+ show a higher EV than an A?”
In the Optimal EV and Sharp Books models, EV is only one input. Usually the A has the higher win probability, or the B+ only supports a small stake. The comparison above shows why the higher-EV play isn’t always the stronger bet.
“Do grades change during the day?”
Yes. Plays are recalculated as prices move, so a play can be upgraded, downgraded, or removed. That’s the model reacting to the market, not a glitch.
Key Takeaways
Optimal+ grades run from B to A+, and every graded play has already cleared the model’s minimum edge
A grade measures how strong a bet is over the long run, not whether it wins tonight
In the EV models, grades weigh the edge, the win probability, and the stake it supports, not just raw EV
Each model grades on its own terms, so compare grades within a model
Grades move with the odds, so confirm the price before you bet
Let units set your stake and grades set your priorities
Ready to see today’s graded plays? Get Optimal+ and start at the top of the feed.
