Every sportsbook price is an opinion with a margin built in. The Optimal EV model’s job is to answer one question for every line on the board: what should this bet actually cost?
Once you know the fair price, finding value is simple. Any sportsbook paying more than fair is offering a positive expected value bet. Optimal EV is the core model in Optimal+, and here’s how it works.
What the Optimal EV Model Does
It comes down to three steps:
Remove the vig from two-way markets at many sportsbooks
Blend those no-vig prices into a single consensus fair price
Compare every sportsbook’s odds to that fair price, and surface the ones that pay too much
The idea is simple. Doing it for every game, prop, and derivative market while prices move all day is the hard part.
Step 1: Remove the Vig
A sportsbook prices both sides of a market so they add up to more than 100%. The extra is the vig. Strip it out and you get that book’s estimate of the true probability.
Take Josh Allen’s passing yards, Over/Under 249.5, at one book (illustrative prices):
Over -115: 53.5% implied
Under -105: 51.2% implied
Total: 104.7%
Scale each side down so the two add to 100%:
Over: 53.5% ÷ 104.7% = 51.1%
Under: 51.2% ÷ 104.7% = 48.9%
That’s one book’s no-vig price. The no-vig fair odds guide covers the math in more depth.
Step 2: Build a Consensus Fair Price
One book’s no-vig price is still one opinion. The line might be stale, it might carry extra vig, or the book might just be wrong. So the model runs the same calculation at every sportsbook pricing that line, then blends the results.
Here’s the same prop at four books:
| Sportsbook | Over | Under | Total vig | No-vig Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | -110 | +100 | 2.4% | 51.2% |
| FanDuel | -114 | -106 | 4.7% | 50.9% |
| DraftKings | -120 | -110 | 6.9% | 51.0% |
| BetMGM | +100 | -130 | 6.5% | 46.9% |
Three books cluster around 51%. BetMGM is the outlier, and a straight average of all four lands near 50%.
But not every market deserves an equal vote:
Tighter markets say more. A book dealing -110/+100 has little room for error. A book dealing +100/-130 has plenty of margin to hide a mistake.
Some books are more reliable. Books that take sharp action get corrected faster.
So the Optimal EV model weights each book’s price, leaning on the tighter and more reliable markets. In this example, that lifts the consensus above the straight average, toward the cluster near 51%, instead of letting one outlier drag it down.
Step 3: Compare Every Book to Fair
With a fair price in hand, every offer on the board faces the same test: does it pay more than it should?
Say the consensus for the over lands at 51%, fair odds of about -104. Caesars is dealing the over at +110, which implies 47.6%:
EV = (0.51 × 2.10) − 1 = +7.1%
That bet pays like a 47.6% shot on something the market says hits 51% of the time. The model calculates the edge, the win probability, and a fractional Kelly stake, then grades the play.
What doesn’t qualify matters just as much. The Pinnacle over at -110 needs a 52.4% win rate to break even, so at a 51% fair price it’s a losing bet. Most prices fail this test. The model’s value is ignoring nearly all of them and surfacing the few that pass.
Quality Checks Before a Play Reaches You
A price that looks +EV isn’t automatically a play. The model applies guardrails first:
Enough agreement. A player prop needs multiple sportsbooks pricing that exact line before the model trusts the fair price.
No junk markets. Markets with excessive vig, or lopsided quotes that carry no real information, are kept out of the consensus.
A meaningful edge. Edges too small to matter don’t make the cut.
Not too good to be true. An enormous edge is more often a stale or broken line than a gift, so implausible edges are filtered out.
Pregame only. Plays come off the feed when the game starts.
Reading an Optimal EV Play
Each Optimal EV play shows the numbers behind it:
| Field | What it means |
|---|---|
| Model Projected Odds | The consensus fair odds after removing the vig |
| Vig % | The average vig in the markets behind the fair price |
| Market Width | How far apart the two sides are priced, in cents. Narrower means tighter |
| Break-even Win % | The win rate the posted odds require |
| EV | Expected return per dollar at the posted odds |
| Win % | The model’s estimated probability that the bet wins |
| Units | Suggested stake, where one unit is 1% of your bankroll |
You’ll also see other sportsbooks’ prices for the same bet. In the app, an odds analysis chart lines the play up against the fair price and every other book.
Optimal EV vs. Sharp Books
Optimal+ also runs a Sharp Books model, which benchmarks against one sharp sportsbook instead of a blend.
| Optimal EV | Sharp Books | |
|---|---|---|
| Fair price from | A weighted blend of many books | One sharp book’s no-vig line |
| Strength | Robust to any single book’s mistake | Reacts directly to the sharpest price |
| Watch for | Can lag when sharp books move first | Only as good as that one book’s line |
| Coverage | Broad, including props and derivative markets | Markets where a sharp book posts a tight line |
Many bettors use both. When the two models flag the same bet, two different ways of measuring fair value agree.
How to Use Optimal EV Plays
Bet the price, not the pick. The edge belongs to the odds shown. If your book has moved, check the break-even win % again.
Move quickly. Mispriced lines get corrected, and big edges tend not to last.
Shop the other books. If another book has the same bet at a better price, take it.
Let units set your stake. Stronger edges already get bigger stakes.
Think in volume. A 55% bet still loses 45% of the time. The edge shows up over hundreds of bets.
Key Takeaways
Optimal EV removes the vig from markets across sportsbooks and blends them into a consensus fair price
Tighter, more reliable markets carry more weight in that consensus
Any sportsbook paying more than the fair price is offering a +EV bet
Guardrails filter out thin markets, tiny edges, and edges too large to trust
Every play shows its fair odds, vig, market width, break-even win rate, EV, Win %, and units
See every Optimal EV play, graded and sorted, in Optimal+.
