You placed a futures bet on a team to win the championship at +2000. They made the finals. Now you’re sitting on a potentially massive payout — but they could still lose. This is exactly when hedge betting makes sense.
What is Hedge Betting?
Hedging is placing a second bet on the opposite outcome of an existing bet to reduce risk or guarantee profit. Instead of going all-or-nothing, you lock in a guaranteed return regardless of the result.
Hedging trades maximum potential profit for certainty.
How it Works: A Real Example
You bet $100 on the Bills to win the Super Bowl at +2000 before the season. The Bills made it. Your original bet pays $2,100 ($2,000 profit + $100 stake) if they win.
The opposing team is -150 in the Super Bowl.
Without hedging:
Bills win: +$2,000
Bills lose: -$100
With hedging: You bet $857 on the opponent at -150.
Bills win: +$2,000 (original) - $857 (hedge lost) = +$1,143
Bills lose: -$100 (original) + $571 (hedge profit) = +$471
You went from a risky $2,000-or-nothing to a guaranteed $471-$1,143 profit either way.
The Hedge Formula
To guarantee equal profit on both sides:
Hedge Stake = (Original Payout) / (Hedge Decimal Odds)
For unequal distribution (guaranteeing a minimum while leaving upside on one side), the math shifts. The hedge calculator handles both scenarios.
When to Hedge
Hedging makes sense in specific situations:
Futures bets deep in a tournament: Your longshot bet has real value now. The risk/reward has completely changed since you placed it.
Live betting swings: You bet a team pre-game and they’re now heavy favorites. You can hedge with a live bet on the opponent at inflated odds.
Last leg of a parlay: Three of your four parlay legs hit. The last game hasn’t started yet. You can hedge the final leg to lock in profit.
Life-changing money: If a bet would materially impact your finances, reducing variance is the rational choice regardless of EV.
When NOT to Hedge
Hedging isn’t always smart:
Every bet you place: If you’re hedging routinely, you’re just paying double vig. The sportsbook takes a cut on both sides.
Small stakes: The transaction costs (vig on both bets) eat too much of the profit on small wagers.
When the hedge is -EV: If both your original bet and the hedge are -EV, you’re guaranteed to lose value. Only hedge when the combined position is still +EV or when the guaranteed profit justifies the EV cost.
Emotional hedging: Don’t hedge just because you’re nervous. If the EV is on your side, letting it ride is the mathematically correct play.
Hedging vs. Arbitrage
These are related but different:
| Hedging | Arbitrage | |
|---|---|---|
| Timing | Second bet placed after the first | Both bets placed simultaneously |
| Goal | Reduce risk on existing position | Guaranteed profit from price differences |
| Requires | Odds movement or tournament progression | Different prices at different books |
| Frequency | Occasional, situational | Systematic, repeatable |
Arbitrage is finding two books that disagree on price right now. Hedging is protecting a position that became valuable over time.
Key Takeaways
Hedging locks in guaranteed profit by betting both sides of an outcome
It’s most valuable on futures, parlay last legs, and large live betting swings
Don’t hedge routinely — the double vig makes it costly
Use the calculator to find the exact hedge stake for your desired profit distribution
