Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the expected value (EV) of any bet. Find out if a wager is +EV or -EV before you place it.
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What Is Expected Value in Betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same wager thousands of times. A positive EV (+EV) bet is profitable long-term; a negative EV (-EV) bet is not.
The Formula
EV = (Win Probability × Win Amount) - (Loss Probability × Stake)
Example
You find a +150 line that you believe has a 45% chance of hitting. Win amount on a $100 bet = $150. EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = +$12.50. This is a +EV bet worth taking.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?
Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive expected value (+EV) means the bet is profitable over time, while a negative expected value (-EV) means you will lose money on average. It is the single most important metric for serious sports bettors.
Is positive expected value betting actually profitable?
Yes, +EV betting is profitable over a large sample of bets. Individual bets can still lose, but placing hundreds or thousands of +EV wagers will produce a profit over time. This is the same mathematical principle that makes casinos profitable -- they have a positive edge on every game.
How do you calculate expected value for a bet?
Multiply your estimated win probability by the profit you would earn if you win, then subtract the product of your loss probability and the amount you would lose. The formula is EV = (Win Probability x Win Amount) - (Loss Probability x Stake). A positive result means the bet has a mathematical edge in your favor.
What win probability do I need to be profitable at -110 odds?
At standard -110 odds, you need to win more than 52.38% of your bets to be profitable. This is because the sportsbook's vig (juice) requires you to risk $110 to win $100. Any win rate above 52.38% produces a positive expected value at those odds.
Get the Edge with Optimal Bet
Our app scans sportsbook pricing across the market to expose inefficiencies and uncover +EV edges. We compare odds, surface high-value opportunities, and deliver precision alerts so you can move with conviction.
